This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.
Market A resolves YES if Argentina reaches the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Market B resolves YES if Argentina wins the 2026 Men's World Cup. To win the World Cup, a team must progress through all knockout rounds including the Round of 16, quarterfinals, semifinals, and final. Therefore, if Argentina wins the World Cup (B=YES), they necessarily must have reached the Round of 16 (A=YES). However, Argentina could reach the Round of 16 but then be eliminated in that round or any subsequent round before winning the tournament (A=YES but B=NO). This means B's YES-set is strictly contained within A's YES-set.
Market A resolves YES if Argentina reaches the 2026 FIFA World Cup Semifinals. Market B resolves YES if Argentina wins the 2026 Men's World Cup. To win the World Cup, a team must advance through all knockout stages including the semifinals, quarterfinals, round of 16, etc., and then win both the semifinal and final matches. Therefore, if Argentina wins the World Cup (B=YES), they necessarily must have reached the semifinals (A=YES). However, Argentina could reach the semifinals but then lose in the semifinal or final, making A=YES while B=NO. This means B's YES-set (Argentina wins World Cup) is strictly contained within A's YES-set (Argentina reaches semifinals).
Winning World Cup requires advancing to knockouts, but advancing doesn't require winning. A⊃B confirmed. B=YES implies A=YES; A=YES does not imply B=YES
B (winning World Cup) requires A (reaching final) but A doesn't require B. Argentina can reach final and lose. B=YES implies A=YES; A=YES does not imply B=YES
A=YES when Argentina reaches final. B=YES when Argentina wins tournament. Winning requires reaching final, but reaching final doesn't guarantee winning. B=YES implies A=YES; A=YES does not imply B=YES
PMXT found this market on only one venue, so there's no cross-venue gap to compute. Showing this venue's current prices.
| Outcome | Price | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| No | 0.0¢ | — |
| Yes | 0.0¢ | — |