This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.
PMXT found this market on only one venue, so there's no cross-venue gap to compute. Showing this venue's current prices.
| Outcome | Price | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| No | 0.0¢ | — |
| Yes | 0.0¢ | — |
Market A resolves YES if Argentina reaches the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Market B resolves YES if Argentina wins the 2026 Men's World Cup. To win the World Cup, a team must progress through all knockout rounds including the Round of 16, quarterfinals, semifinals, and final. Therefore, if Argentina wins the World Cup (B=YES), they necessarily must have reached the Round of 16 (A=YES). However, Argentina could reach the Round of 16 but then be eliminated in that round or any subsequent round before winning the tournament (A=YES but B=NO). This means B's YES-set is strictly contained within A's YES-set.
Market A resolves YES if Argentina qualifies for the FIFA World Cup Final. Market B resolves YES if Argentina reaches the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. In the World Cup tournament structure, teams must progress through: Group Stage → Round of 16 → Quarter-finals → Semi-finals → Final. For Argentina to qualify for the Final, they must necessarily have reached and progressed through the Round of 16. Therefore, if A resolves YES (Argentina reaches Final), then B must resolve YES (Argentina reached Round of 16). However, B can resolve YES without A resolving YES - Argentina could reach the Round of 16 but be eliminated before the Final. This means the set of scenarios where A=YES is strictly contained within the set of scenarios where B=YES.
Market A resolves YES if Argentina wins all 3 group stage matches in the 2026 World Cup. Market B resolves YES if Argentina reaches the Round of 16 in the 2026 World Cup. To analyze the relationship: If Argentina wins all 3 group stage matches (A=YES), they will definitely advance to the Round of 16, so B=YES as well. However, Argentina could reach the Round of 16 without winning all 3 group matches - they could win 2 and draw 1, or have other combinations that still allow advancement (B=YES but A=NO). Therefore, the set of worlds where A resolves YES is strictly contained within the set of worlds where B resolves YES, making A a subset of B.
Market A asks if Argentina will qualify for the FIFA World Cup Quarterfinals in 2026. Market B asks if Argentina will reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. In FIFA World Cup tournament structure, teams must first reach the Round of 16 before they can advance to the Quarterfinals. The Round of 16 is the stage that comes before the Quarterfinals. Therefore, if Argentina qualifies for the Quarterfinals (Market A = YES), they must have necessarily reached the Round of 16 first (Market B = YES). However, Argentina could reach the Round of 16 but then be eliminated before reaching the Quarterfinals (Market B = YES, Market A = NO). This means the set of scenarios where Market A resolves YES is strictly contained within the set of scenarios where Market B resolves YES.