This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.
Market A resolves YES if Argentina wins all 3 group stage matches in the 2026 World Cup. Market B resolves YES if Argentina reaches the Round of 16 in the 2026 World Cup. To analyze the relationship: If Argentina wins all 3 group stage matches (A=YES), they will definitely advance to the Round of 16, so B=YES as well. However, Argentina could reach the Round of 16 without winning all 3 group matches - they could win 2 and draw 1, or have other combinations that still allow advancement (B=YES but A=NO). Therefore, the set of worlds where A resolves YES is strictly contained within the set of worlds where B resolves YES, making A a subset of B.
Market A asks if Argentina wins ALL 3 group stage matches. Market B asks if Argentina advances to the knockout stages. To advance to knockout stages, a team typically needs to finish in the top 2 of their 4-team group, which can be achieved with various combinations of wins, draws, and losses - not necessarily winning all 3 matches. For example, Argentina could advance with 2 wins and 1 draw, or even 1 win and 2 draws in some scenarios, or other combinations depending on other teams' results. However, if Argentina wins all 3 group stage matches (Market A = YES), they will definitely have enough points to advance to knockout stages (Market B = YES), as 9 points from 3 wins guarantees advancement. But Argentina can advance to knockout stages (Market B = YES) without winning all 3 matches (Market A = NO). Therefore, the set of scenarios where A resolves YES is contained within the set of scenarios where B resolves YES.
PMXT found this market on only one venue, so there's no cross-venue gap to compute. Showing this venue's current prices.
| Outcome | Price | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| No | 0.0¢ | — |
| Yes | 0.0¢ | — |