This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.
PMXT found this market on only one venue, so there's no cross-venue gap to compute. Showing this venue's current prices.
| Outcome | Price | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| No | 0.0¢ | — |
| Yes | 0.0¢ | — |
Market A resolves YES if Argentina reaches the 2026 FIFA World Cup Semifinals. Market B resolves YES if Argentina wins the 2026 Men's World Cup. To win the World Cup, a team must advance through all knockout stages including the semifinals, quarterfinals, round of 16, etc., and then win both the semifinal and final matches. Therefore, if Argentina wins the World Cup (B=YES), they necessarily must have reached the semifinals (A=YES). However, Argentina could reach the semifinals but then lose in the semifinal or final, making A=YES while B=NO. This means B's YES-set (Argentina wins World Cup) is strictly contained within A's YES-set (Argentina reaches semifinals).
Market A asks if Argentina reaches the Semifinals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Market B asks if Argentina qualifies for the Quarterfinals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. In FIFA World Cup tournament structure, teams must qualify for and advance through the Quarterfinals before they can reach the Semifinals. Therefore, if Argentina reaches the Semifinals (A=YES), they must have necessarily qualified for the Quarterfinals (B=YES). However, Argentina could qualify for the Quarterfinals but then lose in the Quarterfinals match, meaning they would not reach the Semifinals (B=YES but A=NO). This shows that A's YES-set is strictly contained within B's YES-set.
Market A asks if Argentina will qualify for the FIFA World Cup Final (the championship game). Market B asks if Argentina will reach the Semifinals. In tournament structure, to reach the Final, a team must first advance through earlier rounds including the Semifinals. Therefore, if Argentina qualifies for the Final (A=YES), they must have reached the Semifinals (B=YES). However, Argentina could reach the Semifinals but then lose in the Semifinals match, meaning they reach the Semifinals (B=YES) but do not qualify for the Final (A=NO). This shows that A=YES implies B=YES, but B=YES does not imply A=YES. Therefore, the set of worlds where A resolves YES is strictly contained within the set of worlds where B resolves YES.
Market A requires Argentina to reach the semifinals, while Market B only requires Argentina to qualify for the Round of 16. Since reaching the semifinals necessarily requires first qualifying for the Round of 16, every world where A=YES also has B=YES. However, Argentina could qualify for the Round of 16 but be eliminated before the semifinals, creating worlds where B=YES but A=NO. Therefore A's YES-set is strictly contained within B's YES-set.