This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.
PMXT found this market on only one venue, so there's no cross-venue gap to compute. Showing this venue's current prices.
| Outcome | Price | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| No | 0.0¢ | — |
| Yes | 0.0¢ | — |
Winning World Cup requires advancing to knockouts, but advancing doesn't require winning the tournament. A⊃B, so A is superset of B. B=YES implies A=YES; A=YES does not imply B=YES
A=Netherlands advances to knockouts. B=Netherlands wins World Cup. Winning requires advancing, but advancing doesn't require winning. B=YES implies A=YES; A=YES does not imply B=YES
A=YES requires Netherlands be furthest European, which requires advancing past group stage. B=YES only requires knockout qualification. A=YES implies B=YES; B=YES does not imply A=YES
B requires reaching semifinals, A only requires knockout stages. Every semifinalist must first advance to knockouts, but knockout advancement doesn't guarantee semifinals. B=YES implies A=YES; A=YES does not imply B=YES
Quarterfinals qualification requires knockout stage advancement first. Netherlands can advance to knockouts but lose before quarters. A=YES implies B=YES; B=YES does not imply A=YES
Reaching World Cup final requires advancing to knockouts first. A=YES implies B=YES logically, but B=YES doesn't require reaching final. A=YES implies B=YES; B=YES does not imply A=YES
Market A asks whether Netherlands wins all 3 group stage matches. Market B asks whether Netherlands advances to the knockout stages. To analyze the relationship: If Netherlands wins all 3 group stage matches (A=YES), they will definitely have maximum points in their group and will advance to knockout stages (B=YES). However, Netherlands can advance to knockout stages (B=YES) without winning all 3 matches - they could advance by winning 2 matches, or winning 1 and drawing 2, or other combinations that give them enough points/goal difference to qualify. Therefore, A=YES implies B=YES, but B=YES does not imply A=YES. This means A's YES-set is contained within B's YES-set.