This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.
PMXT found this market on only one venue, so there's no cross-venue gap to compute. Showing this venue's current prices.
| Outcome | Price | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| No | 0.0¢ | — |
| Yes | 0.0¢ | — |
Market A resolves YES if Netherlands wins all 3 group stage matches in the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Market B resolves YES if Netherlands reaches the Round of 16 in the 2026 FIFA World Cup. To analyze the relationship: If Netherlands wins all 3 group stage matches (A=YES), they will have maximum points in their group and will definitely qualify for the Round of 16 (B=YES). However, Netherlands can reach the Round of 16 without winning all 3 matches - they could win 2 and draw 1, or win 2 and lose 1, or even advance with fewer wins depending on group dynamics and goal differential. Therefore, there are valid scenarios where B=YES but A=NO (e.g., Netherlands advances to Round of 16 with 2 wins and 1 draw). But there are no valid scenarios where A=YES and B=NO, since winning all 3 group matches guarantees advancement. This means A's YES-set is contained within B's YES-set.
Market A asks whether Netherlands wins all 3 group stage matches. Market B asks whether Netherlands advances to the knockout stages. To analyze the relationship: If Netherlands wins all 3 group stage matches (A=YES), they will definitely have maximum points in their group and will advance to knockout stages (B=YES). However, Netherlands can advance to knockout stages (B=YES) without winning all 3 matches - they could advance by winning 2 matches, or winning 1 and drawing 2, or other combinations that give them enough points/goal difference to qualify. Therefore, A=YES implies B=YES, but B=YES does not imply A=YES. This means A's YES-set is contained within B's YES-set.