This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.
PMXT found this market on only one venue, so there's no cross-venue gap to compute. Showing this venue's current prices.
| Outcome | Price | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| No | 0.0¢ | — |
| Yes | 0.0¢ | — |
Market A resolves YES if Netherlands reaches the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Market B resolves YES if Netherlands wins the entire 2026 Men's World Cup. To win the World Cup, a team must advance through all knockout stages, which necessarily includes reaching the Round of 16 first. Therefore, any world where Netherlands wins the World Cup (B=YES) is also a world where Netherlands reaches the Round of 16 (A=YES). However, there are many possible worlds where Netherlands reaches the Round of 16 but does not win the entire tournament (A=YES, B=NO) - for example, if they lose in the quarterfinals or semifinals. This means B's YES-set is strictly contained within A's YES-set, making A a superset of B.
Market A resolves YES if Netherlands qualifies for the FIFA World Cup Final (the championship match). Market B resolves YES if Netherlands reaches the Round of 16. In FIFA World Cup tournament structure, teams must progress through: Group Stage → Round of 16 → Quarterfinals → Semifinals → Final. For Netherlands to reach the Final, they must necessarily pass through the Round of 16 first. Therefore, if A=YES (Netherlands reaches Final), then B=YES (Netherlands reaches Round of 16) is guaranteed. However, B=YES does not guarantee A=YES, as Netherlands could reach the Round of 16 but be eliminated before the Final. The set of worlds where Netherlands reaches the Final is strictly contained within the set of worlds where Netherlands reaches the Round of 16.
Market A asks if Netherlands qualifies for the FIFA World Cup Quarterfinals in 2026. Market B asks if Netherlands reaches the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. In FIFA World Cup tournament structure, teams must first reach the Round of 16, then win that match to advance to the Quarterfinals. Therefore, qualifying for the Quarterfinals requires first reaching the Round of 16. This means: if Netherlands qualifies for Quarterfinals (A=YES), then Netherlands must have reached Round of 16 (B=YES). However, Netherlands could reach Round of 16 but lose in that round, never qualifying for Quarterfinals (B=YES, A=NO). The set of worlds where A resolves YES (Netherlands reaches Quarterfinals) is strictly contained within the set of worlds where B resolves YES (Netherlands reaches Round of 16).
Market A resolves YES if Netherlands wins all 3 group stage matches in the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Market B resolves YES if Netherlands reaches the Round of 16 in the 2026 FIFA World Cup. To analyze the relationship: If Netherlands wins all 3 group stage matches (A=YES), they will have maximum points in their group and will definitely qualify for the Round of 16 (B=YES). However, Netherlands can reach the Round of 16 without winning all 3 matches - they could win 2 and draw 1, or win 2 and lose 1, or even advance with fewer wins depending on group dynamics and goal differential. Therefore, there are valid scenarios where B=YES but A=NO (e.g., Netherlands advances to Round of 16 with 2 wins and 1 draw). But there are no valid scenarios where A=YES and B=NO, since winning all 3 group matches guarantees advancement. This means A's YES-set is contained within B's YES-set.