Market A resolves YES if Ivory Coast reaches the 2026 FIFA World Cup Semifinals. Market B resolves YES if Ivory Coast qualifies for the Round of 16 in the 2026 FIFA World Cup. In FIFA World Cup tournament structure, teams must first qualify for the Round of 16, then win that match to reach the quarterfinals, then win the quarterfinal to reach the semifinals. Therefore, reaching the semifinals necessarily requires first qualifying for the Round of 16. This means: if A resolves YES (Ivory Coast reaches semifinals), then B must also resolve YES (Ivory Coast qualified for Round of 16). However, B can resolve YES without A resolving YES - Ivory Coast could qualify for Round of 16 but lose in that round, quarterfinals, or any stage before the semifinals. The set of worlds where A=YES is strictly contained within the set of worlds where B=YES.
Market B (reaching final) requires qualifying for R16 plus advancing through all knockout rounds. Market A only requires R16 qualification. B=YES implies A=YES; A=YES does not imply B=YES
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.
PMXT found this market on only one venue, so there's no cross-venue gap to compute. Showing this venue's current prices.
| Outcome | Price | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Not Will Satoshi Move any Bitcoin in 2026? | 0.0¢ | — |
| Will Satoshi Move any Bitcoin in 2026? | 0.0¢ | — |