This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.
PMXT found this market on only one venue, so there's no cross-venue gap to compute. Showing this venue's current prices.
| Outcome | Price | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Not Will Satoshi Move any Bitcoin in 2026? | 0.0¢ | — |
| Will Satoshi Move any Bitcoin in 2026? | 0.0¢ | — |
A=reaching final is broader than B=winning tournament. B requires both reaching final AND winning it. Every winner must reach final, but not every finalist wins. B=YES implies A=YES; A=YES does not imply B=YES
Reaching final requires qualifying for quarterfinals first. Market B is subset of Market A, making A superset of B as proposed. B=YES implies A=YES; A=YES does not imply B=YES
Market B (reaching final) requires qualifying for R16 plus advancing through all knockout rounds. Market A only requires R16 qualification. B=YES implies A=YES; A=YES does not imply B=YES