Market A resolves YES if Ivory Coast reaches the semifinals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Market B resolves YES if Ivory Coast wins the 2026 Men's World Cup. To win the World Cup, a team must first reach the semifinals (since the winner comes from the final, which requires advancing through the semifinals). Therefore, if Ivory Coast wins the World Cup (B=YES), they must have reached the semifinals (A=YES). However, Ivory Coast could reach the semifinals but then lose in the semifinals or final, meaning A=YES while B=NO. This creates a valid counterexample where A=YES and B=NO exists, but no valid counterexample where B=YES and A=NO exists. Therefore, B's YES-set is strictly contained within A's YES-set, making A a superset of B.
Market A asks if Ivory Coast will qualify for the FIFA World Cup Final (the championship game). Market B asks if Ivory Coast will reach the Semifinals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. In tournament structure, to reach the Final, a team must first reach the Semifinals and then win their semifinal match. Therefore, if Ivory Coast qualifies for the Final (A=YES), they must have reached the Semifinals (B=YES). However, Ivory Coast could reach the Semifinals but lose their semifinal match and not qualify for the Final (B=YES, A=NO). This means A's YES-set is strictly contained within B's YES-set.
Market A resolves YES if Ivory Coast reaches the 2026 FIFA World Cup Semifinals. Market B resolves YES if Ivory Coast qualifies for the Round of 16 in the 2026 FIFA World Cup. In FIFA World Cup tournament structure, teams must first qualify for the Round of 16, then win that match to reach the quarterfinals, then win the quarterfinal to reach the semifinals. Therefore, reaching the semifinals necessarily requires first qualifying for the Round of 16. This means: if A resolves YES (Ivory Coast reaches semifinals), then B must also resolve YES (Ivory Coast qualified for Round of 16). However, B can resolve YES without A resolving YES - Ivory Coast could qualify for Round of 16 but lose in that round, quarterfinals, or any stage before the semifinals. The set of worlds where A=YES is strictly contained within the set of worlds where B=YES.
Market A asks whether Ivory Coast reaches the semifinals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Market B asks whether Ivory Coast qualifies for the quarterfinals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. In FIFA World Cup structure, teams must first qualify for quarterfinals, then win their quarterfinal match to reach semifinals. Therefore, reaching semifinals (Market A = YES) logically requires first qualifying for quarterfinals (Market B = YES). However, a team can qualify for quarterfinals but lose their quarterfinal match, meaning they would not reach semifinals. This creates a valid world where B = YES (qualifies for quarterfinals) but A = NO (loses in quarterfinals, doesn't reach semifinals). No valid world exists where A = YES but B = NO, since reaching semifinals necessarily requires qualifying for quarterfinals first. Therefore, Market A's YES-set is strictly contained within Market B's YES-set.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.
PMXT found this market on only one venue, so there's no cross-venue gap to compute. Showing this venue's current prices.
| Outcome | Price | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Not Will Satoshi Move any Bitcoin in 2026? | 0.0¢ | — |
| Will Satoshi Move any Bitcoin in 2026? | 0.0¢ | — |