This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.
PMXT found this market on only one venue, so there's no cross-venue gap to compute. Showing this venue's current prices.
| Outcome | Price | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| No | 0.0¢ | — |
| Yes | 0.0¢ | — |
A=YES (Germany advances to knockouts) is broader than B=YES (Germany wins World Cup). Winning requires advancing, but advancing doesn't require winning. B=YES implies A=YES; A=YES does not imply B=YES
To win the World Cup, Germany must advance to knockouts. But advancing to knockouts doesn't require winning the tournament. B=YES implies A=YES; A=YES does not imply B=YES
Quarterfinals require advancing through knockout stages first. Germany can advance to knockouts but lose before quarterfinals. A=YES implies B=YES; B=YES does not imply A=YES
A: knockout stages (Round of 32+). B: semifinals. Every semifinalist must advance to knockouts first, but knockout advancement doesn't guarantee semifinals. B=YES implies A=YES; A=YES does not imply B=YES
Reaching World Cup final requires first advancing to knockout stages. A=YES logically implies B=YES, but B=YES doesn't require reaching final. A=YES implies B=YES; B=YES does not imply A=YES
A=YES requires Germany to be furthest European team, which logically requires advancing to knockouts. B=YES only requires knockout advancement, achievable without being furthest European. A=YES implies B=YES; B=YES does not imply A=YES