This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.
PMXT found this market on only one venue, so there's no cross-venue gap to compute. Showing this venue's current prices.
| Outcome | Price | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| No | 0.0¢ | — |
| Yes | 0.0¢ | — |
Germany winning World Cup requires reaching semifinals. Germany can reach semifinals without winning tournament. A=YES implies B=YES; B=YES does not imply A=YES
Winning the World Cup requires reaching the final, which requires qualifying for semifinals. Germany can reach semis but lose later. A=YES implies B=YES; B=YES does not imply A=YES
Reaching the final requires first qualifying for semifinals. Germany can qualify for semifinals but lose there, so B can be YES while A is NO. A=YES implies B=YES; B=YES does not imply A=YES
A: knockout stages (Round of 32+). B: semifinals. Every semifinalist must advance to knockouts first, but knockout advancement doesn't guarantee semifinals. B=YES implies A=YES; A=YES does not imply B=YES