This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.
PMXT found this market on only one venue, so there's no cross-venue gap to compute. Showing this venue's current prices.
| Outcome | Price | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| No | 0.0¢ | — |
| Yes | 0.0¢ | — |
Winning the World Cup requires reaching the final. Brazil can reach final without winning it. A=YES implies B=YES; B=YES does not imply A=YES
B=YES (Brazil wins) logically requires reaching the final, so B⊆A. A=YES (Brazil reaches final) doesn't require winning - they could lose in final. B=YES implies A=YES; A=YES does not imply B=YES
B (winning) requires A (reaching final), but A can occur without B if Brazil loses in the final. Every B=YES world implies A=YES. B=YES implies A=YES; A=YES does not imply B=YES
Reaching final requires advancing through semifinals first. Brazil can qualify for semifinals but lose there, not reaching final. A=YES implies B=YES; B=YES does not imply A=YES
Reaching World Cup final requires first advancing to knockout stages. A=YES logically implies B=YES, but B=YES doesn't require reaching final. A=YES implies B=YES; B=YES does not imply A=YES