This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.
PMXT found this market on only one venue, so there's no cross-venue gap to compute. Showing this venue's current prices.
| Outcome | Price | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| No | 0.0¢ | — |
| Yes | 0.0¢ | — |
To win the World Cup, France must advance to knockout stages. But advancing to knockouts doesn't require winning the tournament. B=YES implies A=YES; A=YES does not imply B=YES
A=France advances to knockouts. B=France wins World Cup. Winning requires advancing (B=>A), but advancing doesn't guarantee winning (A≠>B). B=YES implies A=YES; A=YES does not imply B=YES
Reaching semifinals requires advancing to knockouts first, but advancing to knockouts doesn't guarantee semifinals. B=YES implies A=YES; A=YES does not imply B=YES
Quarterfinals qualification requires knockout advancement first. France can advance to knockout but lose before quarterfinals. A=YES implies B=YES; B=YES does not imply A=YES
France finishing 1st in Group I guarantees knockout advancement, but France can advance without finishing 1st (2nd place or best 3rd). B=YES implies A=YES; A=YES does not imply B=YES
Reaching World Cup final requires advancing to knockout stages first. A=YES implies B=YES always, but B=YES doesn't require A=YES. A=YES implies B=YES; B=YES does not imply A=YES
France being furthest European requires knockout advancement, but knockout advancement doesn't guarantee being furthest European. A=YES implies B=YES; B=YES does not imply A=YES