This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.
PMXT found this market on only one venue, so there's no cross-venue gap to compute. Showing this venue's current prices.
| Outcome | Price | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Not Will Satoshi Move any Bitcoin in 2026? | 0.0¢ | — |
| Will Satoshi Move any Bitcoin in 2026? | 0.0¢ | — |
Market A resolves YES if Ukraine agrees to cede de facto control of specific major cities in Donbas (Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk) before 2027. Market B resolves YES if Ukraine agrees to cede ANY territory under its control before 2027. The set of scenarios where A resolves YES (ceding specific Donbas cities) is entirely contained within the set of scenarios where B resolves YES (ceding any territory). If Ukraine cedes the Donbas cities specified in A, this would automatically qualify as ceding territory under B. However, B could resolve YES in many other scenarios where Ukraine cedes different territories (other regions, other cities, etc.) that would not trigger A's resolution. Therefore, A's YES-set is strictly contained within B's YES-set.