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This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.
A requires majority territory transfer by 2026; B only needs any part. A=YES implies B=YES, but B can resolve YES with partial acquisition while A resolves NO. A=YES implies B=YES; B=YES does not imply A=YES
Market A resolves YES only if the U.S. invades Greenland (military offensive to establish control). Market B resolves YES if the U.S. acquires any part of Greenland through ANY means - including invasion (use of force), but also peaceful transfers of sovereignty, binding agreements, treaties, or other legal instruments. The set of scenarios where A resolves YES (invasion) is entirely contained within the set of scenarios where B resolves YES (any acquisition including invasion). Every invasion scenario would also qualify as acquisition, but there are many acquisition scenarios (peaceful transfers, treaties, etc.) that would not involve invasion.