This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.
Market A resolves YES if Germany reaches the final of the 2026 FIFA World Cup (either as winner or runner-up). Market B resolves YES only if Germany wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The set of scenarios where Germany wins the World Cup is strictly contained within the set of scenarios where Germany reaches the final, since winning requires first reaching the final, but reaching the final doesn't guarantee winning (Germany could lose in the final). Therefore, B's YES-set is contained in A's YES-set.
PMXT found this market on only one venue, so there's no cross-venue gap to compute. Showing this venue's current prices.
| Outcome | Price | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Not Will Satoshi Move any Bitcoin in 2026? | 0.0¢ | — |
| Will Satoshi Move any Bitcoin in 2026? | 0.0¢ | — |