This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.
A is about qualifying for runoff, B is about winning election. Winning requires qualifying, but qualifying doesn't guarantee winning. B=YES implies A=YES; A=YES does not imply B=YES
A resolves YES if Spencer qualifies for runoff (top 2). B resolves YES only if Spencer finishes first. Finishing first guarantees runoff qualification, but not vice versa. B=YES implies A=YES; A=YES does not imply B=YES
A=YES means Pratt finishes 2nd, guaranteeing top-2 runoff qualification. B=YES only requires top-2 finish, so Pratt could finish 1st and qualify without being 2nd. A=YES implies B=YES; B=YES does not imply A=YES
PMXT found this market on only one venue, so there's no cross-venue gap to compute. Showing this venue's current prices.
| Outcome | Price | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| No | 0.0¢ | — |
| Yes | 0.0¢ | — |