This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.
A covers 'before 2027' (includes 2026+earlier), B covers only 'in 2026'. Every B=YES implies A=YES, but A can be YES without B (moves in 2027). B=YES implies A=YES; A=YES does not imply B=YES
A covers 2026 only, B covers before 2027 (includes 2026 plus earlier years). Every A=YES world has movement in 2026, which satisfies B's broader timeframe. A=YES implies B=YES; B=YES does not imply A=YES
PMXT found this market on only one venue, so there's no cross-venue gap to compute. Showing this venue's current prices.
| Outcome | Price | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Not Will Satoshi Move any Bitcoin in 2026? | 0.0¢ | — |
| Will Satoshi Move any Bitcoin in 2026? | 0.0¢ | — |