This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.
PMXT found this market on only one venue, so there's no cross-venue gap to compute. Showing this venue's current prices.
| Outcome | Price | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| No | 0.0¢ | — |
| Yes | 0.0¢ | — |
Winning World Cup requires reaching final, but reaching final doesn't guarantee winning it. A=YES implies B=YES; B=YES does not imply A=YES
A=Belgium reaches final (winner OR runner-up). B=Belgium wins tournament (winner only). Every B=YES world has A=YES, but A can be YES when B is NO. B=YES implies A=YES; A=YES does not imply B=YES
Belgium winning World Cup requires reaching final, but reaching final doesn't require winning (could lose final match). B=YES implies A=YES; A=YES does not imply B=YES
B=YES requires reaching final, which logically requires qualifying for R16 (A=YES). A=YES only requires R16 qualification, not reaching final. B=YES implies A=YES; A=YES does not imply B=YES
Reaching final requires qualifying for quarterfinals first. Belgium can qualify for quarters but lose before final. B=YES implies A=YES; A=YES does not imply B=YES
Belgium reaching final (B=YES) guarantees they advance furthest among Europeans (A=YES). But A=YES only requires Belgium to advance furthest among Europeans, not necessarily reach final. B=YES implies A=YES; A=YES does not imply B=YES