This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.
PMXT found this market on only one venue, so there's no cross-venue gap to compute. Showing this venue's current prices.
| Outcome | Price | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Not Will Satoshi Move any Bitcoin in 2026? | 0.0¢ | — |
| Will Satoshi Move any Bitcoin in 2026? | 0.0¢ | — |
Market A resolves YES if Belgium reaches the final of the 2026 FIFA World Cup (i.e., finishes in 1st or 2nd place). Market B resolves YES only if Belgium wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup (i.e., finishes in 1st place). The set of scenarios where Belgium wins the World Cup is strictly contained within the set of scenarios where Belgium reaches the final. If Belgium wins, they must have reached the final, but reaching the final doesn't guarantee winning (they could lose in the final). Therefore, B's YES-set is contained in A's YES-set.