This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.
Market A resolves YES if Norway reaches the final of the 2026 FIFA World Cup (i.e., they are one of the two teams playing in the final match). Market B resolves YES if Norway wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup (i.e., they are declared the champion). For Norway to win the World Cup, they must first reach the final and then win that final match. Therefore, the set of scenarios where Norway wins (Market B = YES) is strictly contained within the set of scenarios where Norway reaches the final (Market A = YES). Norway can reach the final but lose it, making A = YES while B = NO, but Norway cannot win without first reaching the final.
PMXT found this market on only one venue, so there's no cross-venue gap to compute. Showing this venue's current prices.
| Outcome | Price | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Not Will Satoshi Move any Bitcoin in 2026? | 0.0¢ | — |
| Will Satoshi Move any Bitcoin in 2026? | 0.0¢ | — |